by Nicholas Patti

January 31, 2024, Raleigh, NC—President Joe Biden is handling major domestic and foreign policy issues well. As such, he is doing well as President, and deserves re-election, at this time.

First up is probably the most important single domestic issue that could determine whether President Biden wins re-election this Fall. That issue is the economy. The economy is doing surprisingly well, at this time, and that fact benefits and reflects well on President Biden and the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

First, GDP, or gross domestic product. The annual rate clocked in at a healthy 3.3% from October through December, 2023, according to a report from the US Commerce Department, as quoted in the Daily News (New York, NY: 1/26/2024, p. 18). Why? Apparently, despite high interest rates and prices, prices that “have frustrated many households,” still, consumer spending by Americans remained strong, according to Paul Wiseman, writing for the Associated Press in the Daily News (New York, NY: 1/26/2024, p. 18). Wiseman credits strong consumer spending by Americans in the fourth-quarter of 2023 with propelling that growth in the GDP in America, during that time period. The actual number of the expansion of consumer spending is 2.8%, during that fourth-quarter, according to the Daily News (New York, NY: 1/26/2024, p. 18).

The big issue facing the Federal Reserve now is what to do about the interest rates. The Fed may choose to keep interest rates high, at 5.4%, unchanged, or could choose to lower interest rates, which would significantly cut costs for Americans to access money, through loans for anything and everything. The Federal Reserve is meeting now, and finishes the meeting this Wednesday, when they are expected to make an announcement on this key topic, according to Christopher Rugaber, reporting from Washington for the Associated Press, as published in the News and Observer (Raleigh, NC: 1/30/2024, p. 9A).

The pivotal factor for the interest rate level is, of course, inflation. News about inflation could not be better. Over the past six months, inflation has fallen to the Fed’s actual target level, 2% annually. That would suggest that the Fed may begin cutting the interest rate, increasing Americans’ access to money, through borrowing.

The politics of the data and the prospects cannot be missed. For his part, however, Fed Chair Jerome Powell denies any involvement. “We don’t think about politics. We think about what’s the right thing to do for the economy,” he is quoted as saying in News and Observer (Raleigh, NC: 1/30/2024, p. 9A).

I do think about politics, however, and it is one of the central themes of this blog post. I do not think that Powell’s and the Federal Reserve’s choices are politically motivated; I take him at his word. The facts showing how solid the economy and American consumer spending are right now, however, those facts can motivate Powell’s and the Federal Reserve’s choices regarding the interest rate level. These facts, and the resulting interest rates, do impact politics, centrally, in America, especially during this election year.

Currently, those facts look good for President Biden and his handling of the economy. The Daily News describes the political implications: “The state of the economy is sure to weigh on people’s minds ahead of the November elections. After an extended period of gloom, Americans are starting to feel somewhat better about inflation and the economy—a trend that could sustain consumer spending, fuel economic growth and potentially affect voters’ decisions” (New York, NY: 1/26/2024, p. 18).

I would argue that the state of the economy definitely affects voters’ decisions. Remember the campaign slogan that helped win former President Bill Clinton the White House in the 1990s: “It’s the economy, stupid.” That was his main campaign slogan, and that slogan worked. President Clinton won that election. Once again, I would echo that slogan for this presidential election: “It’s the economy, stupid.” Those economic facts currently benefit and reflect well on President Joe Biden. The Federal Reserve’s decisions on lowering interest rates this year will only prime the pump for President Biden.

I know that the economy is somewhat unpredictable. It remains a risk, therefore, for any president to tie his re-election chances to the economy, because it can change quickly. Paul Wiseman, writing in the Daily News (New York, NY: 1/26/2024, p. 18), made the point about how unpredictable the economy can be, and in fact has been, this past year. “The economy has repeatedly defied predictions that the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes would trigger a recession,” Wiseman writes. “Far from collapsing last year, the economy accelerated….”

All of this benefits President Joe Biden and his re-election campaign this year. President Biden deserves credit for this, and deserves re-election, in my opinion, but he would be wise to be somewhat careful about hanging all of his re-election chances on the currently strong economy. That could change, and quickly, but right now, it looks good.

Historically and currently, how the economy is doing at the time of the election, and how Americans feel about the economy, impacts the outcome of the election, centrally. President Biden would do well to continue to try to bring forth the message that the economy is doing well, and that President Biden is doing a good job managing the economy for the American people, at this time. If the economy continues to do well through the election this November, all of this will benefit President Biden’s re-election campaign and his chances of winning in November. If the economy were to take a turn for the worse and tank, however, that possibility would negatively impact President Biden’s re-election campaign, and would, conceivably, cost President Biden his re-election.

President Biden needs to be careful about how he takes credit for the current strength in the American economy under his current management. I think he should take credit, however, and bring out the message about the good economy, currently. I think President Biden and the Federal Reserve deserve credit for the strong American economy, currently, and I think President Joe Biden deserves re-election on the basis of this domestic issue, at this time.

On foreign policy, namely the Middle East, President Biden is handling the situation well, also, at this time, in my opinion. The latest news is that three American soldiers were killed in a drone attack in Jordan on Sunday, according to a statement by President Joe Biden this past Sunday. In addition, 25 American soldiers were injured in the same attack, according to the U.S. Central Command, as reported in the News and Observer (Raleigh, NC: 1/29/2024, p. 8A; 1/30/2024, eEdition, p. 29).

President Biden vowed a response, but a measured response. Speaking on CNN (1/30/2024, television), President Biden said he had decided on a response, meaning a military response, but that he continued to try to avoid a wider war in the Middle East, namely, against Iran. Quoted in the News and Observer (Raleigh, NC: 1/30/2024, p. 9A), President Biden said, “We will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner of our choosing.” President Biden named “radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq,” in the same article in the News and Observer.

From a North Carolina perspective, it is worth noting that all three U.S. Army soldiers killed were from Georgia, according to the News and Observer (Raleigh, NC: eEdition, 1/30/2024, p. 31). There is this local, regional, Southern connection to this tragedy. The important point about these soldiers, who were killed, however, is not the U.S. state or region they were from, namely, Georgia and the South, but that they were American soldiers, United States service members. Three American soldiers were killed in this attack on U.S. forces in Jordan this past Sunday.

Another American footnote to this news story is that, simultaneous to the multiple attacks that have occurred in the Middle East since Israel invaded the Gaza Strip, in America, however, anti-Muslim and anti-Palestinian bias complaints have increased substantially. During the final three months of 2023, the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) reported a 178% increase of complaints of bias in the United States, totaling 3,578 complaints, as compared to the same period in 2022, according to the News and Observer (Raleigh, NC: eEdition, 1/30/2024, p. 33). For all of this talk of war in the Middle East, against Iran and its proxies, between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, in Palestine, we should remember that hate and discrimination of any kind have no place in America. We should stand up against anti-Muslim and anti-Palestinian bias and harassment in America, regardless of our opinion of the Israeli occupation and war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, in Palestine, and regardless of our outrage at our own, U.S. casualties and injuries in the U.S. Armed Forces, currently engaged in low-level armed conflict across the Middle East, but notably, not in Iran, itself.

I support President Joe Biden’s measured military response to attacks on U.S. service members in the Middle East. I agree with President Biden, as he said on CNN today, that we do not need a wider war in the Middle East, namely, against Iran, directly (1/30/2024). President Biden is determined to answer the attack on U.S. soldiers in the Middle East, namely, in this specific attack on the U.S. base and soldiers in Jordan, however. The three U.S. soldiers who were killed in last Sunday’s attack on U.S. forces in Jordan are the first U.S. soldiers to die, by the way, from any attacks since tensions in the Middle East have increased dramatically from the start of the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip, in Palestine, since October of last year (News and Observer: Raleigh, NC, 1/30/2024, p. 9A).

It should be noted that Iran itself distanced itself from the attacks in Jordan. “Resistance groups in the region do not take orders from the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the Foreign Ministry Spokesman for Iran, Nasser Kanaani, was quoted as saying this past Monday in the News and Observer (Raleigh, NC: 1/30/2024, p. 9A). I think the best way to contain any possible regional, Middle Eastern conflagration from flaring up is not to attack Iran, directly. I would not support any attack on Iran, directly, as I think this would escalate the situation unnecessarily, and could lead to an increasing spiral of violence that could drag the U.S. into a wider war in the Middle East, namely, against Iran. America does not need a war with Iran, and the Iranian people, in particular, do not need a war against America.

Wars against America in the Middle East can be particularly deadly for the people of the Arab World. Remember the U.S. war in Iraq. Approximately 100,000 Iraqi civilians died at the hands of U.S. bombs, alone. The Iranian people do not need to experience something similar.

What is more, the United States does not need another long, unending, deadly war for the U.S. in the Middle East, either. Remember, also, the war in Iraq. The world protested for peace and against the war in Iraq on February 15, 2003. The U.S. commenced a ground invasion of Iraq, anyway, and the war in Iraq dragged on for literally, years to come. Thousands of U.S. troops lost their lives in that war, as well. The chant of the peace movement against the war in Iraq was, “Support the troops. Bring them home.” Eventually, we did, mostly.

Aside from the recent historical experience of the U.S. and Iraq, however, I would like to focus on the current challenges facing the U.S. in the Middle East, namely, Iran and its proxies.

It should be noted, also, that the reason the U.S. is currently having problems with Iranian proxy fighters in the Middle East is the war in the Gaza Strip, namely, the Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip, with the goal of eliminating Hamas. The U.S. stands by Israel. Iran, and in particular, its proxies across the Middle East, are on the other side, and passionately so. I agree with President Joe Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza, and President Biden’s defense of American forces across the Middle East, without bringing on another wider war for America, in particular, in the Middle East. President Biden, as the American President, is duty-bound to stand by American soldiers, placed in harm’s way in the Middle East. I think President Biden is doing a good job defending American soldiers deployed in the Middle East, while avoiding a broader, even more devastating, war.

There are hawks on this subject in America with whom I disagree. One such hawk would be Republican U.S. Senator Lindsay Graham, of neighboring South Carolina. Reportedly, he is urging President Biden to attack Iran, in Iran. “Hit Iran now,” he is quoted as saying in the News and Observer (Raleigh, NC: 1/30/2024, p. 9A). “Hit them hard.”

In light of comments such as these, President Biden may be seen as weak. I disagree. I think President Biden is doing a good job as our American president defending American soldiers overseas, precisely without embroiling the U.S. in another wider, unending, bloody, particularly American war in the Middle East. I agree with President Biden that it is in American interests to avoid such a war. Also, I support President Biden doing his job as our American president to defend our soldiers, militarily, who are currently deployed in the Middle East.

I think President Biden is handling the situation in the Middle East well, currently. I do not know what form the U.S. military response will take to the death of three U.S. service members in Jordan, last Sunday. I do know that President Biden has vowed a response. When asked about more details about such a strike, President Biden deferred, saying only that there would be a military response, and as for any details, he would only say, “We’ll see” (CNN, 1/30/2024).

President Joe Biden is handling the U.S. economy well, at this time, and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, as well. On two significant issues in this election year, one domestic, one foreign policy, President Biden is doing a good job.

President Biden deserves to win his re-election in the Presidential campaign this year.

—Nicholas Patti

Raleigh, NC

USA